Rishi Sunak becoming Prime Minister of Britain augurs well for India, at least economically. Politically, though it will not be of much significance because the Conservative Party has always been pro-Pakistan in its views on Kashmir which has not gone down well with India.
Sunak has become prime minister at a time when Britain is facing a major economic crisis, be it inflation or bond prices or raising of income tax. Given the fact that Sunak comes from a hedge fund background his policies are bound to hit the lower strata of people.
One thing must be kept very clear in the mind that Sunak was a supporter of Brexit and coming out of the EU has adversely impacted migrants of which Indians constitute a major chunk.
Liz Truss was booted out because of her economic policies and this is one plus point for Sunak because he had helped small and medium businesses during Covid and pumped billions of pounds into the economy, a step that was widely appreciated. Britishers are facing recession and rising interest rates and also double-digit inflation. Consumers are facing rising costs and falling real incomes.
Pound has also weakened and at one time it almost became comparable to dollar in terms of value. Sunak also has to manage his party with factions which differ on Brexit, immigration and economic policy management. Immigration was the major reason behind and it has deeply impacted Asian and African nations.
India too has suffered because of Brexit and many Indians have lost jobs in the aftermath of Brexit.
Sunak has an onerous task on his hands, partly created by the stimulus package he gave the economy during the Covid crisis.
Rising inflation is causing many problems and price control will be very closely watched. Truss was booted out because of her economic policies and Sunak has to tread very carefully on that front.
Gone are the days when for every crisis, Britain used to look to the US for some help. That was during Margaret Thatcher’s time and later. But now the US is not in a position to help out much because of the powerful influence of France and Germany over global politics. Every US step of Britain will be very closely watched by many countries including India.
Before Sunak, two leaders lost premiership over internal differences and outlook towards European Union. So for Sunak it will be very important to tackle the economy without hurting the supporters of the European Union.
For Indians it is just a matter of momentary happiness that a person of their origin has become premier of a country that ruled us for over hundreds of years and its policies had ramifications that are still felt in the country.
The two biggest issues are Sunak’s immigration policy and the party’s stand on Kashmir vis a vis Pakistan. Any UK policy which goes against immigration is going to directly impact Indians because many are settled there for generations and many more aspire to go to Britain in the future.
The reappointment of Suella Braverman as home secretary is not seen as a good news for the Indian establishment. Braverman is strongly anti-migrant and has already said that Indians are the largest overstayers in the UK.
Pragmatic policy dictates that Sunak should open up gates and allow IT migrants and other skilled workers from India to Britain. That will help mitigate their cost of living crisis. But this goes against his pro-Brexit stance. Will Sunak ditch that and embrace economic pragmatism?
Kashmir is a major issue for Indian politics and the Conservative Party’s stance over the matter in the last many years have not gone down well with the Indian establishment.
In Indian politics, Pakistan has been a major irritant and its name sounds alarms to many Indians be it Kashmir or cricket.
After independence, Kashmir has been a major problem for the Indian government and for the past 30 years or so the issue has attained international status.
During the Kargil problem India and Pakistan almost came to war. What happened during the Kargil issue was slightly short of war and the Kashmir issue played a major role in that. Attack on the Indian Parliament and killing in Mumbai further worsened India’s relationship with Pakistan.
And the Conservative Party has been very soft on Pakistan when it came to the Kashmir issue. It has never openly criticised Pakistan over its open support to terrorism in Kashmir.
Now after the Modi regime has been in power in Delhi, much has changed. Modi’s decision to remove Article 370 and trifurcation of Kashmir has not settled down yet and any further support to Pakistan will surely impact the India-UK ties.
A section of Indians are very happy over elevation of Sunak only because of the fact that he is a devout Hindu and they see it as a growing influence of Modi’s Hindutva policies in the globe.
Sunak has two things clear cut on his plate. First is the British economy. How well he handles the situation and also there is not much job loss and prices remain under control. His hard nosed policies of an erstwhile hedge fund chief will not go down well with the crisis-hit Britishers and he will have to think several times before he decides any policy which is in favour of big industry and ignores lower and middle class. And on Kashmir, Sunak has to tread very carefully because his elevation has generated false hopes among a chunk of Indians that being a follower of
Hinduism, he will be anti-Pakistan. This is the running feeling within the minds of pro-Modi Indians.
So Sunak is wearing a crown full of thorns and any hasty step will cost him dear.
By Arvind Das
Senior Assistant Editor, TheNFAPost
